AI isn’t always innovation. From Google Glass to 3D TVs, history shows hype can’t replace execution. Learn why today’s AI tools may be a false floor—and what leaders must do to build lasting impact.
Every hype cycle has its false floors.
Think back: Google Glass promised to replace your phone, 3D TVs were going to reinvent living rooms, and the metaverse had CEOs buying digital land like it was the Louisiana Purchase 2.0. Each looked like solid ground, but when you stepped on it, the floor gave way.
AI feels different — but it still has its own false floors. And recognizing them is where real innovation lives.
False Floor #1: AI as the Product
Right now, countless startups are just slapping “powered by AI” on existing ideas. A resume screener, a note-taker, a chatbot for FAQs. Useful? Sure. Durable? Probably not. This is the low-hanging fruit era, where 90% of players are building wrappers around the same models. Expect a collapse here as competition floods in.
False Floor #2: AI as a Shortcut
“Let’s just plug AI in and save costs.” This is the corporate reflex — swap out humans for automation. But history tells us cost-cutting alone rarely sustains innovation. Think about what happened when outsourcing was treated as a silver bullet: efficiency gains, yes, but also brittle supply chains and stalled differentiation. AI as shortcut risks the same trap.
False Floor #3: AI as a Black Box Oracle
Many leaders are treating AI as if it’s infallible — the new decision engine that will surface the “truth.” But if you’ve played with even the most advanced LLMs, you know they’re more confident improv actors than omniscient judges. The companies that build trust layers (verification, human-AI collaboration, explainability) will stand on solid ground.
False Floor #4: The Productivity Mirage
Early AI pilots often tout efficiency gains: faster emails, cleaner decks, quicker analysis. But much of this is a mirage — productivity shifts, it doesn’t multiply. A recent Accenture survey found that while most executives saw productivity improvements, fewer than half could tie them to revenue or innovation outcomes.
Shaving 30 minutes off a report doesn’t fuel your next breakthrough — unless you reinvest that saved time into ideation and experimentation. The real innovators will use AI to free up creative capacity, not just calendar space.
False Floor #5: The Talent Paradox
Companies assume AI lowers the talent bar — fewer people needed, fewer skills required. In practice, the opposite is true. MIT Sloan research shows that while AI reduces rote work, it increases demand for high-context judgment and creative synthesis.
Translation: AI flattens the bottom (entry-level tasks get automated) but raises the ceiling (experts become more valuable). The firms that think AI is a replacement strategy will end up hollowed out. The ones that pair AI with higher human capability will move their talent mix up-market — and widen the competitive gap.
The Real Floor: AI as Innovation Engine
Here’s the fresh insight: the real floor — the one that won’t collapse — is AI as an enabler of new forms of innovation, not just faster versions of old ones.
Think less “AI note-taker” and more “AI creating entirely new ways of convening, collaborating, or even discovering.” One recent example: Insilico Medicine brought an AI-discovered drug for pulmonary fibrosis into Phase II trials — the first of its kind. That’s not a wrapper. That’s an entirely new innovation pathway.
The innovators who will ride this wave without wiping out are those who can:
- Separate efficiency plays from genuine breakthroughs
- Build business models that don’t crumble when the “AI-as-a-feature” bubble pops
- Treat AI not as an end, but as a collaborator in creating things we couldn’t imagine before
The ocean is littered with broken boards from false floors — but if you can see where the ground actually holds, you’re surfing into the next era of innovation.
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